• Monday morning, Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld reported the Magic are basically finished making moves this summer. A rumored Tony-Battie-for-Nick-Collison swap isn't happening, his sources assured him. Damn. Collison's the tough, rebound-centric forward the Magic need. I suppose they value Battie's defense more than they would Collison's work on the glass. Either that, or they love Tony too much to banish him to Oklahoma City.
• It's probably just as well the team's finished making moves, though; they'd hate to have to buy any new acquisition a plane ticket to Pennsylvania. Darren Heitner reported yesterday that Magic co-captain Jameer Nelson is hosting the team in Villanova, PA, for his third annual Building Magic program:

  Building Magic week's mission is to bring the Orlando Magic organization closer together in the offseason by having a week full of workouts, team-building activities, and other events.

  • UPDATE: More on this story from Matt Steinmetz (thanks to 3QC reader Susan for the email assist):

    Magic vice president of communications Joel Glass said Nelson and Howard, Orlando's captains, are the ones who deal with getting players together, and that the team has nothing to do with it.

    Glass said from what he understands the players work out together during the day, then go out to dinner, comedy clubs, etc., at night.

    According to Foyle, the Magic will be bowling, attending a Philadelphia Phillies game and heading down to Atlantic City over the course of the week. Who knows if Foyle will push for next year's bonding session to be in his hometown ... that isle in the Caribbean.

• Last week, the Magic released their preseason schedule, as reported in the Orlando Sentinel. 3QC member Marie noted in the FanPosts three weeks ago that the Magic will host CSKA Moscow in one game. CSKA Moscow employs former NBA-ers Trajan Langdon, Viktor Khryapa, Zoran Planinic, and Terence Morris (who played for the Magic three seasons ago). Former Bucknell standout J.R. Holden also plays for CSKA.
• Dwight Howard posted 6 points and 7 rebounds in Team USA's 116-85 win over Team Australia this morning. Howard played a decent game but -- surprise, surprise -- continues to struggle from the foul line, connecting on just 2 of his 5 freebies today. He also had one of his shots swatted and was late on at least one defensive rotation.
• We all knew the contract Rashard Lewis signed last summer was big. Well, Business Pundit puts it in a historical context, saying it's the 18th-richest sports contract of all-time. Hardwood Paroxysm remains flabbergasted.

The Spurs re-signed Kurt Thomas, the forward/center whom the Magic coveted at the deadline. Meanwhile, a day after acquiring combo guard Keyon Dooling from Orlando, the Nets sent backup point guard (and object of Magic fans' affection) Marcus Williams to the Warriors for a future first-round pick.

Oh, and the Magic's chances of re-signing Carlos Arroyo -- already a long shot -- took a big hit when he tore a leg muscle during an Olympic qualifying tournament.

But Javaris Crittenton, long connected to the Magic in trade rumors, is still in play. The Grizzlies' young combo guard is likely the odd-man-out in Memphis, which wants to focus on developing O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, and Kyle Lowry. I think Crittenton would be a home-run acquisition for Otis Smith and the Magic. For one thing, he's tall (6'05"). For another, his presence would make both J.J. Redick and Keith Bogans more expendable than they already are... assuming they weren't the guys dealt for Crittenton in the first place. Finally, it would mean fewer minutes for Anthony Johnson, the Magic's 34-year-old current backup, whose talent level befits that of a third-stringer.

Could Mikki Moore be an option? The Kings spent their full mid-level on the veteran power forward last summer, but might look to unload him to free-up playing time for youngsters Spencer Hawes, Shelden Williams, and Jason Thompson. Kings fan pookeyguru, whom you may know from his participation in the Sactown Royalty community, would swap Moore for Redick and Brian Cook.

I still support the idea of swapping Redick and Cook for Jeff Foster, but I doubt the Pacers would part with him now that they've dealt Jermaine O'Neal to Toronto for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and riff-raff.

Maybe we overestimate the Magic's need for another player at the power positions. After all, Tony Battie will make his return this season, and figures to steal some minutes from Adonal Foyle (at center) and Rashard Lewis/Cook (at power forward). And Marcin Gortat, who played in more post-season games than regular-season ones, showed promise. But you'll forgive me for feeling nervous about a big-man rotation that includes Lewis, Battie, Gortat, Foyle, and James Augustine.

What's the Magic's biggest area of need? Whom should they target to fill that need?

The Orlando Magic reached an agreement to sign free-agent guard Anthony Johnson, who played for them during the 1999/2000 season, as seen above.

File photo by Don Frazier, the Associated Press

The Orlando Magic signed veteran point guard Anthony Johnson to a two-year deal. Denton and Schmitz have the scoop. Schmitz also says that the team expects backup center Adonal Foyle to return, although he will probably not sign for another month. The 2008/09 roster is indeed taking shape, and there could be another deal in the works, as the Magic are still trying to acquire point guard Javaris Crittenton from the Memphis Grizzlies.

Only that last bit of news excites me. Johnson will turn 34 before the season starts and is, at best, a third-string point guard on a contending team. The Magic need to find a younger, taller option to lead the second unit. And as much as we all admire Foyle's hustle and character, he's too much of an offensive liability to effectively back-up Dwight Howard.

Based on today's news, I expect next season's depth chart to resemble the following (inactive players in italics):

The roster is loaded with bigs, so I expect the team to jettison at least one of them (Cook?) before the season starts. So far, this roster isn't a huge improvement over last year's, which won 52 games and a division title, so maybe we shouldn't complain.

Maybe.

• The most important rumor floating today might not be exactly credible -- it comes from a message-board poster -- but if it's true, I'll be one happy camper, as will plenty of Magic fans. Says poster INeedMoreDarko (via Punisher):

  I've been told Turkoglu will sign a 2 year extension this offseason. Turk loves Orlando(and the Dragon Room), loves Stan, loves the direction the Magic are headed and loves the signing of Pietrus.

  Otis also has a great relationship with Lon Babby, his agent. And will extend Turk another 2 years, possibly 3(Similar to Lew's non-fully guarenteed contract for the last year of his). Remember when we inked Battie to an extension out of nowhere? Agent? Lon Babby... I dont know how much he'll be extending for but I hear it will be roughly 8 Mil a year.

  John Denton reported only a few days ago that Pietrus and Turkoglu vacationed together in Turkey earlier this summer, so it makes sense that Hedo would appreciate the Magic signing one of his close friends. I don't know when Turk would sign this extension; Battie signed his near the end of the 2005/2006 season.

  I do not know what the Dragon Room is.

• Denton also says the Magic's front office is keeping its eyes on what happens to embattled point guards Jamaal Tinsley of Indiana and Stephon Marbury of New York. If those players accept buyouts from their present teams, the Magic will consider signing them to back-up Jameer Nelson. Tinsley's a decent enough point guard when healthy and not shooting the ball, but I think I'd feel more comfortable with Jason Williams. As for Marbury... no. A million times, no.

  UPDATE: Brian Schmitz spoke to Otis Smith about the Marbury and Tinsley rumors. There's no truth to them:

  The Magic desperately need a point guard, maybe two, to back up Jameer Nelson.

  So when I asked Smith if he had interest in either the Pacers' Jamaal Tinsley or the Knicks' Stephon Marbury --- two moody, controversial players who might be bought out by their teams and available for a song --- he shook his head.

  No.

  And no way.

  "You know me," he said.

  That's a relief.

The dominoes keep falling into place for the Magic. Tuesday, they agreed to terms with free-agent guard Mickael Pietrus; Wednesday, they decided they would not re-sign Keyon Dooling, according to the Orlando Sentinel's sources. Essentially, team made a marginal upgrade at its weakest position, only to make a significant downgrade at its second-weakest position one day later. At best, they've broken even. Dooling is, without a doubt, the best point guard left on the market. The best the Magic could hope for now is -- gulp -- over-the-hill Jason Williams, who just happens to be interested in signing here, also according to the Sentinel.

Whoop-de-freakin'-do.

The only thing keeping me sane right now is the knowledge that this team won 52 games last season. No need to panic, is there? I mean, it's not like other Eastern teams are making moves to get better. HAHAHAHAA!

Shoot me in the head.

Best of luck to you, Keyon, wherever you go. And I'm sorry you had to hear about the Pietrus signing while on vacationing with Jameer Nelson and Tony Battie in the Bahamas. That must have been... awkward...

Maybe the team will get a solid contributor in return for J.J. Redick, who seems to have accepted that he's finished here; for what it's worth, Otis Smith thinks differently. The Nile is not only a river in Egypt, friends.

What a miserable day.

You may remember this post from May, in which I tried to navigate the NBA's salary cap to see what the Magic could do this summer in free agency. Now that we're closer to the beginning of the free-agent signing period (Wednesday, July 9th), I thought I'd take another look at it. I've presented my findings in a Q-and-A format. For this post, I consulted Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap F.A.Q., Storyteller's Contracts, ESPN's 2008 NBA Free Agent list, and the Orlando Magic's official roster page. We hope you find this guide helpful.

Question: How many players do the Magic have under contract next season, and what are they owed?

Answer: Currently, the Magic have 11 players under contract, owed a total of $60,553,339 next season. While the league has yet to release its official salary-cap data, we can say with absolute certainty that the Magic are over the salary cap. Here's how everything breaks down by player...

Note: for this table, "Age" refers to a player's age as of October 31st, 2008, when we expect the NBA season to begin.

... and by position...

Make the jump to read the rest of the Q-and-A.

Continue reading this post »

So, now that you've had at least one full day to think about the Magic's draft, how would you evaluate it? Did they do well? Could they have done better? Let's take a look.

They Did Well

1. They got the guy at the top of their draft board without having to trade up.
2. They got a guy who can contribute immediately; in other words, someone who's on-track with the team's championship aspirations.
3. They got a guy who gives them depth at one of their weakest positions.

They Did Not-So-Well

1. They drafted a two-guard, which leaves them with only Tony Battie, Marcin Gortat, and Adonal Foyle (if he re-signs, which seems doubtful at this juncture) to back up Dwight Howard at center.
2. It also leaves them with no true power forward on their roster.
3. They couldn't maneuver into the second round; John Denton explains that teams asked for far too much cash than the Magic wanted to offer, which raises the question: why couldn't they have traded into the second round?

Let's take a look around the basketblogosphere and see what it has to say:

• Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don't Lie did not like the Magic's decision to select Lee. In his team-by-team rundown of draft picks, Dwyer gave the Magic a 3 out of 10, the second-lowest score for any team he rated (Dallas got a 0, and several teams didn't make moves and were thus not evaluated). Why is Dwyer down on Orlando's decision?

  The guy is going to be 23 on opening night, and couldn't even put together huge numbers for a so-so Western Kentucky team. I am not a fan. If you disagree, bookmark this and talk to me in three years.

• For his part, ESPN's Chad Ford wasn't impressed with the Magic's pick either, rating their draft as a B-. Ford mentions the Magic would have been better served drafting Darrell Arthur, then writes, "I'm not down on Lee, but he's not a guy who can put them over the top." Hardly anyone gets an over-the-top kind of player at 22, so I think Ford might have overreacted a bit with this grade.
• Marty Burns of Sports Illustrated goes a bit lighter on the Magic, rating their draft a B. His justification? Lee was the best available two-guard left when they picked. I'm sure Magic fans in the Chris Douglas-Roberts camp will have something to say about that, as Douglas-Roberts slipped (!) all the way to the Nets with the 40th (!!) overall pick.
• Sam Smith of the Sporting News likes the Magic's pick because he thinks it means the end of the J.J. Redick "era" -- his word, not mine. Smith gave the team a B.
• Mike DeCourcy, also of the Sporting News, didn't hand out grades, but did say that Lee is "a better athlete than any guard in this draft, save for Russell Westbrook." He calls Lee "a solid choice" at 22 for Orlando. And, like Smith, he thinks J.J.'s as good as gone. (Sporting News links via BrewHoop)
• UPDATE: Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress gives the Magic a B, which on his scale means they "did well in filling their needs, getting fair value from their pick and getting a prospect that fits their system in the direction the franchise is heading in," according to the scale at the beginning of the article.

Me? I was all set to give the Magic a B+, but their failure to get into the second round of the draft, and thus their lack of depth at power forward, made me grade them a B-. If they have to go through another season with Rashard Lewis at power forward (read: getting killed on their offensive boards) because they thought $200,000 was too much to pay for the right to draft a rebounder, none of us will be pleased. And if Arthur blooms into an All-Star, well, crap.

But what say you, 3QC readers? How'd the Magic do? Vote in the poll and add your thoughts in the comments.

The Magic expect backup center Adonal Foyle to do the unexpected by opting out of the last year of his deal, says Tim Povtak. Foyle, who played in all 82 of the Magic's regular-season games before falling out of the rotation in the playoffs, will leave $1.26 million in guaranteed money on the table.

In my postseason evaluation of Foyle, I wrote, "I suspect that [Marcin] Gortat will spell [Dwight] Howard for much of next season. And, as much as I appreciate Foyle's effort, it's probably for the best." When I wrote that post, I operated under the assumption that Foyle would return to the Magic, but fall to third on the depth chart at center. Well, it still applies. The Magic will have Gortat and a healthy Tony Battie to play center behind Howard, so I doubt we'll miss Foyle too much... if he leaves at all. Magic GM Otis Smith said that Foyle might still return to the team.

Verdict? Adonal seems like a nice guy and a great teammate, but the Magic need more athleticism and more offense than what Foyle offers. Later, dude.

This summer, 3QC will take a look back on each Magic player's 2007-2008 season. The first nine posts will evaluate, on an individual basis and in alphabetical order, the players who played in at least 20% of the team's total minutes; the final post will briefly evaluate the five players who appeared in less than 20% of the team's minutes.

Today, our focus is Rashard Lewis.

Rashard Lewis faced more scrutiny last season than any other Magic player had in recent memory. Fresh off signing the largest contract in team history, Lewis entered the 2007/2008 season facing high expectations. The Magic hoped Lewis would become the top-flite scorer the likes of which they hadn't employed since Tracy McGrady last donned blue-and-white.

The result? Mixed.

There's no telling what sort of season Lewis would have had if Tony Battie, Orlando's incumbent power forward, hadn't suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in October. With Battie out, the Magic had no choice but to start Lewis, a natural small forward, at power forward. At 6'10", Lewis has the height to defend most other power forwards, but not the strength or skill-set. As a result he had to expend most of his energy on the defensive end, muscling up against the likes of Zach Randolph, Chris Bosh, and Kevin Garnett. As one might expect, Lewis finished with poor rebounding and block numbers for his position.

Offensively, Lewis played a game more in line with his skills. He roamed the perimeter and launched three-pointers with impunity, keeping defenses honest. But apart from the very infrequent post-up on the left block, Lewis showed little offensive versatility and became the team's third option on most offensive sets.

Not that he seemed to mind. He never complained publicly about his role with the team, recognizing that Dwight Howard is, unequivocally, its cornerstone, and Hedo Turkoglu is its savviest scorer since McGrady. But as much as we appreciate Lewis' being a team player, we still wish he'd assert himself more often. Because of Turkoglu's emergence as a playmaker, the Magic rarely called on Lewis to win games for them, but when they did, the result was not always pretty:

• 30 November 2007: Losing to Phoenix by 2 points with 9 seconds to play, Stan Van Gundy draws up a play for Lewis, shooting 6-of-18 (3-of-11 from beyond the arc), to take a three. Lewis might have been fouled, but it doesn't matter. The shot misses. Magic lose.
• 21 January 2008: With the game versus Detroit knotted at 100, the Magic have 3.6 seconds and the ball coming out of a timeout. They go to Lewis at the top of the arc. He dribbles to the right side of the key, gets Richard Hamilton in the air with a great fake, and hoists a 15-footer at the buzzer. Money. Magic win.
• 8 February 2008: Trailing the Lakers by 3 with 14 seconds to play, Lewis gets the ball in the right corner and shoots what would have been the game-tying basket. Lamar Odom gets his fingertips on it. Magic lose.
• 1 April 2008: Down 1 to New Orleans, the Magic go to Lewis at the top of the key, as they did against Detroit two months previous. Lewis once again dribbles right, only this time he passes to Keyon Dooling on the wing. Dooling, who did not appear ready to receive the pass, rushes his jumper and misses. Magic lose.

If the Magic expect to become elite, they need to get more offense from Lewis, especially in late-game situations now that opposing teams expect them to go to Turkoglu. The answer might be to move him to small forward, which should boost his scoring average and, perhaps, his confidence in the clutch.

But overall, Lewis was the ideal third banana, if we use Bill Simmons' description:

he ideal "third banana" should be someone who isn't consistent enough to be great, but good enough to have a game-to-game impact and occasionally carry you for a game.

Looking simply at Lewis' statistics and skills, there are plenty of GMs who would love to add him to their teams, but certainly not at the price Otis Smith paid him. Fairly or unfairly, the media judge players based on their salaries, as if they somehow expect players to show humility by turning down nine-figure salaries. Lewis would've needed an MVP-caliber season to justify his contract. Magic fans had to settle for him being their team's third-best player. They probably weren't okay with that, but somehow, I think Rashard is.

This post outlines some numbers and facts to consider before the start of free-agency. Teams can begin negotiating with players on July 1st but cannot sign anyone until July 11th. I obtained all the player salary data in this post from HoopsHype.com. I obtained the salary-cap and exception estimations from DraftExpress (via Canis Hoopus)

The Magic have seven players with guaranteed contracts for the 2008/09 season. They will also have the 22nd overall pick in the upcoming draft, and thus will have eight players under contract when free-agency begins July 1st. As shown below, these eight players will earn a total of $55.23 million.

They also have three players who could return depending on their contract options. Keith Bogans and Adonal Foyle own player options, and the team has an option on Marcin Gortat. All three players are expected to return; Bogans and Foyle likely will not find better offers, and the team appears to think highly of Gortat, as he earned the backup center role in the playoffs. If all three players return, the Magic will owe them a combined $4.88 million, as this table shows.

The Magic will owe these eleven players a total of $60.11 million, which is above the estimated salary cap ($58.50 million). Because the team will be over the cap, they will have the right to use the mid-level exception (estimated at $5.55 million). Additionally, the Magic will have the right to use the bi-annual exception (estimated at $1.91 million) because they did not use it last year. These exceptions give the Magic an extra $7.46 million with which to fill their roster. Please see this section of Larry Coon's invaluable NBA Salary Cap FAQ for more information on these exceptions.

So, if all eleven players return (as we suspect they will) and if the team uses both exceptions, the Magic will owe $67.57 million to their players. That figure is below the estimated luxury-tax threshold ($71 million).

We expect their first priority will be re-signing Keyon Dooling, who earned $3.5 million last season and will likely seek a raise based on his strong play, as he became the Magic's top reserve with his defensive and shot-creating skills. Maurice Evans and Carlos Arroyo might return, but Evans will look to triple his salary (he earned $1.5 million last season) and Arroyo would have to accept a heavy paycut ($4.0 million last season). We don't expect either of them to return, nor do we expect the team to offer contracts to little-used power forwards James Augustine or Pat Garrity. As such, we've left them out of the table below.

Yes, the Magic have plenty of choices to make this offseason, but none of them as significant (or as franchise-defining) as the ones they made last summer, namely signing Rashard Lewis and extending Dwight Howard's contract. However, these smaller transactions may turn out to be more significant, as the team appears to be only a player or two away from seriously contending for the NBA title.

NOTES:

• ¹: As of July 1, 2008
• ²: 2008/09 season
• ³: Estimated