File photo by Chuck Burton, the Associated Press

• Best birthday wishes to Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy, who turns 48 today. In his first year with Orlando, The Man guided the Magic to their third-highest win total in franchise history, all without wearing a tie. I've yet to meet a single Magic fan who doesn't like him. We're glad to have Stan aboard and we hope he took at least today off from preparing for this season to relax.

• And belated birthday wishes to one Patrick Joseph Garrity, who turned 32 on Saturday. Garrity's career is probably over (although the team has not ruled-out re-signing him), but he spent the last nine seasons with the Magic, and, as such, will forever be identified with them. Thanks, Pat.

• Last week, I linked to a story that reported Jameer Nelson was hosting his Magic teammates in Philadelphia for a week of team-building exercises. That story has picked up some steam, and some people who aren't even huge fans of Nelson's game are praising him. From Empty the Bench:

  NBA players are under more of a microscope than any athletes in any other major professional sport, and when they screw up it's amplified ten times more than when, say, a football player beats and batters his girlfriend during the offseason. And even though this isn't going to change my views of Nelson's on-court game -- it'll take stats and wins for that to happen -- it's a great story and one that deserves some attention.

  Nelson's show of leadership like this is rare in any pro sport. Whether or not it actually amounts to anything remains to be seen, but either way it's the thought that counts.

  And from FanHouse:

  Every NBA team has a captain, but I guarantee no one takes the role more seriously than Jameer Nelson.

  [....]

  I'll be the first to admit, I've used this space in the past to give Nelson grief over the size of his contract, but the guy exudes leadership.

  I'm an unabashed Jameer lover, so I'm happy to see that a) he's taking the initiative -- again -- to help his team jell; and b) that he's getting recognition from non-Magic fans for doing so. Let's hope he continues to earn praise this season with his work on the floor.

• Hardwood Paroxysm recently hosted a roundtable discussion regarding the role of small-market teams in the NBA. I partook, as did bloggers representing Charlotte, Cleveland, Memphis, Milwaukee, Sacramento, and San Antonio.
• Nothing But Net passes along word that Dwight Howard's official basketball camp will take place this Saturday and Sunday at RDV Sportsplex. Visit DwightHowardCamp.com for more information.
• Indy Cornrows, SB Nation's Pacers blog, says the NBA has denied Indiana's request to use a red, white, and blue ABA basketball for a preseason game. The reason I mention that news here is because I recall the Magic and the Spurs playing a regular-season game with a red, white, and blue ball just a few seasons ago. Does anyone else remember that game?

Also note some changes around the network. The left sidebar of every SB Nation site includes a complete SB Nation blogroll, separated by league, which expands and collapses with a click. Below that, you'll find a subscription center which houses the feeds for the main page, FanPosts, and FanShots. Thanks to the SBN tech wizards for their hard work.

Free agency is here! Everybody freak out!

• Free-agency coverage abounds in the Sentinel today.
  • Tim Povtak lists Golden State Warriors swingman Mickael Pietrus (more on him below), Chicago Bulls point guard Chris Duhon, and Los Angeles Clippers swingman Corey Maggette as the Magic's primary targets.
  • Povtak also has a list of the NBA's top free agents, which includes Clippers forward Elton Brand, Washington Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas, and Warriors guard Baron Davis. Most of the guys on this list are either out of the Magic's price range or off their radar completely. If Kwame Brown ever plays for Orlando, I might throw up.
  • Brian Schmitz received word from Bill McCandless, who represents Pietrus, that he expects the Magic to contact him regarding his client. Pietrus' calling cards are defense and three-point shooting, so it's easy to see why Stan Van Gundy and Magic management would be interested in him. If the Magic's top priority is to replace Maurice Evans in the starting lineup, Pietrus is probably the best option. For more on Pietrus, check out...
    • this ridiculous weakside block of the Kings' Kevin Martin, which made waves in the basketblogosphere.
    • this criticism of Pietrus' work ethic from 3QC fave Tim Kawakami:

      When Pietrus is hurt, he usually takes about 2 or 3 games longer than any other Warrior mainstay would in a similar circumstance. He's right at 3 games longer right now, by the way.

      He has now missed 11 games this season for various reasons -- all valid enough -- but that's 2 more than Stephen Jackson has missed, and that includes Jackson's 7-game suspension to start the campaign.

      Pietrus has missed 5 more games than Andris Biedrins has missed, and, yes, Biedrins had an appendectomy in the middle of the season.

      That's not a good stat. That's about normal for Pietrus' career, too.

      Those facts should raise some red-flags for the Magic

  • In less exciting news, Schmitz reports that the Magic have told free-agent forward Pat Garrity that they will not offer him a contract until later this summer, if at all. It's a wise move on their part to hold-off, yeah. If they make a splash in free-agency -- unlikely -- they might need a cheap 15th man, and Pat might be that man. But if the team signs him, even for a year at the smallest possible salary, Magic fans will revolt. Of that I am sure. Despite Garrity's long stay in Orlando, he hasn't drawn a large fan following, largely due to his lack of productivity. He should have ended his playing days long ago.
• As expected, Magic draftee Courtney Lee signed a four-year, $6 million deal.
• Yesterday, I speculated that the source Tim Povtak cited as saying Corey Maggette could return to Orlando was none other than Maggette's agent, Rob Pelinka. User "Orltragic07" at Denton's board speculates the source could be Bo Outlaw, a former Maggette teammate and current Magic Community Ambassador. You'll have to scroll down to find his post; I can't seem to find a way to link it directly.
• The annual Pepsi Pro Summer League, which the Magic hosts, starts next Monday. The Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, New Jersey Nets, and Seattle SuperSonics will all send teams filled with players hoping to make the opening-day roster. Click here for the summer-league roster page for all teams. A few notes from Orlando's squad:
  • James Augustine, Marcin Gortat, and Courtney Lee are the three "real" Magic players on the team. Lee will wear uniform no. 32, the same one he wore at Western Kentucky. If he chooses to wear that number in the regular-season, he'll be only the third Magic player in 20 years to do so. The others were Otis Smith and Shaquille O'Neal.
  • Kevin Kruger, who played on last year's summer-league team, will also play on this year's.
  • Temple guard Mark Tyndale, who went undrafted last Thursday, also made the Magic's summer-league team. He was among the five shooting guards the Magic worked-out before the draft. The week before the draft, stat guru Ed Weiland, of HOOPSANALYST, ranked Tyndale the third-best shooting guard in the entire 2008 draft class, behind O.J. Mayo and Chris Douglas-Roberts; he rates Lee, whom the Magic selected 22nd overall, to be the 6th-best.
  • Like last year, you can watch each game online free.

That's all for today. Leave your free-agency suggestions in the comments or the FanPosts.

I updated this post to reflect the fact that the Magic lost Grant Hill in free agency last summer, which I somehow overlooked earlier. Thanks to commenter OVERWADED for bringing that serious oversight to my attention. Additionally, I updated the list after the jump to reflect the Phoenix Suns' potential interest in one of Orlando's current free agents.

With all the draft nonsense last week, it was easy for us at 3QC to lose sight of the fact that the NBA's free-agency period starts Tuesday.

So I'd like to thank Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Dee Gugel of the Orlando Sentinel) for shocking us out of our stupor with today's Florida Sports Buzz feature. Apparently, the Heat have their eyes on some of our free agents (emphases Jackson's):

Riley said he still might trade for a point guard, with Memphis (Kyle Lowry, among others) considered in play. Otherwise, the Heat believes it can find a stopgap starter from a free agent group including Chris Duhon, Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Jannero Pargo and Anthony Carter. And the Heat likes restricted free agent Sebastian Telfair, though Minnesota can match any offer.

[....]

[Heat GM Pat] Riley pointed to the potential to lure a player from ''teams that have three or four unrestricted free agents.'' Keep an eye on Orlando (Arroyo, Dooling, Maurice Evans) and Golden State [...]

Last year, the Magic only lost two three players to free agency: little-used point guard Travis Diener to Indiana; more notably, backup power forward Darko Milicic to Memphis; and swingman Grant Hill to Phoenix. Nobody expected Diener or Hill to come back, and although Milicic's departure surprised plenty of people, we should have expected the Magic to ignore him if it meant focusing on signing Rashard Lewis, which they did.

But the circumstances surrounding its summer -- limited cap space, high expectations entering next season, the higher quality of its own free agents -- will magnify the impact of any Orlando's free-agent losses, especially if they eventually sign with archrival Miami.

What follows after the jump is a list of Orlando's free agents, what they can provide, and which teams might be interested in them.

Continue reading this post »

... did it actually happen?

• The Magic held private workouts with at least three players today, all of them power forwards: Joey Dorsey from Memphis; Marreese Speights from Florida; and D.J. White from Indiana. No word from any of the usual suspects as to how the workouts went, so, uh, that's all I've got. If you're really curious, DraftExpress has the measurements of almost every player in this year's draft class. Dorsey is the only one of the guys the Magic worked out today to appear on that list, though. He's 6'7.25" with shoes.

• Interesting reaction to Otis Smith's contract extension from Matt Watson:

  The Magic improved by 12 games this year to finish with 52 wins, their most since 1996 when Shaquille O'Neal and Penny Hardaway carried the team all the way to the NBA Finals. GM Otis Smith deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround, first for bidding against himself to sign Rashard Lewis and then having the foresight of knowing Tony Battie would get suffer a season-ending injury to open up playing time for the soon-to-be Most Improved Player Hedo Turkoglu. For that, he was rewarded with a three-year extension.

  [....]

  Smith is hardly the worst GM in the league, but I'm convinced the Magic are where they are despite his efforts, not because of it.

• By the way, the schedule for 3QC's Orlando Magic player evaluations is as follows:
  • Monday, June 2nd: Carlos Arroyo
  • Tuesday, June 3rd: Keith Bogans
  • Wednesday, June 4th: Keyon Dooling
  • Thursday, June 5th: Maurice Evans
  • Friday, June 6th: Adonal Foyle
  • Monday, June 9th: Dwight Howard
  • Tuesday, June 10th: Rashard Lewis
  • Wednesday, June 11th: Jameer Nelson
  • Thursday, June 12th: Hedo Turkoglu
  • Friday, June 13th: James Augustine, Brian Cook, Pat Garrity, Marcin Gortat, and J.J. Redick.

We now return to your regularly scheduled early-summer doldrums, already in progress.

If you don't have J.J. Redick's blog RSS'd or bookmarked by now, you really should. It's a great insight into J.J.'s personality. Dude has a good sense of humor. To wit (pun absolutely intended), here's an excerpt from today's entry:

Hello, friends! Not much to update you guys on in my life- I've been laying low and taking some time off from basketball (although you could argue I took the entire season off from basketball). Okay, bad joke.

Hah! J.J. goes on to mention that he doesn't know where he'll work out this summer, that the Sentinel's "Play Me or Trade Me" headline was media sensationalism, and he expects to be in the Magic's training camp this fall.

The best part of Redick's blog, though, is the sidebar in which he answers readers' questions. Here's my absolute fave:

Question:

What is the locker room dynamic like? Who picks the music, who is the leader, etc?

Answer:

Let's be clear here- Dwight, and only Dwight, picks the music in the locker room and the weight room. We listen to a lot of Kanye, Lil' Wayne (I love Kanye and Weezy), and, unfortunately, Soulja Boy Tell 'Em. Sometimes, during the offseason mostly, we have "White Guy Wednesdays." Pat Garrity, James Augustine, and I will lift to the background noise of 80s rock music. As far as clowns on the team- Dwight and Keyon Dooling are the two funniest guys on the team. We really don't have many serious guys off the court. Everybody jokes around a lot. In terms of leadership, most of our older players all try and lead in some capacity. I think Jameer Nelson has a natural inclination to lead.

With Augustine and Garrity almost assuredly on their way out, the end of White Guy Wednesdays is at hand. Even though I think the Magic are better off without J.J., that doesn't mean I'll stop caring about him if/when he's traded. Hopefully, he won't stop blogging.

This post outlines some numbers and facts to consider before the start of free-agency. Teams can begin negotiating with players on July 1st but cannot sign anyone until July 11th. I obtained all the player salary data in this post from HoopsHype.com. I obtained the salary-cap and exception estimations from DraftExpress (via Canis Hoopus)

The Magic have seven players with guaranteed contracts for the 2008/09 season. They will also have the 22nd overall pick in the upcoming draft, and thus will have eight players under contract when free-agency begins July 1st. As shown below, these eight players will earn a total of $55.23 million.

They also have three players who could return depending on their contract options. Keith Bogans and Adonal Foyle own player options, and the team has an option on Marcin Gortat. All three players are expected to return; Bogans and Foyle likely will not find better offers, and the team appears to think highly of Gortat, as he earned the backup center role in the playoffs. If all three players return, the Magic will owe them a combined $4.88 million, as this table shows.

The Magic will owe these eleven players a total of $60.11 million, which is above the estimated salary cap ($58.50 million). Because the team will be over the cap, they will have the right to use the mid-level exception (estimated at $5.55 million). Additionally, the Magic will have the right to use the bi-annual exception (estimated at $1.91 million) because they did not use it last year. These exceptions give the Magic an extra $7.46 million with which to fill their roster. Please see this section of Larry Coon's invaluable NBA Salary Cap FAQ for more information on these exceptions.

So, if all eleven players return (as we suspect they will) and if the team uses both exceptions, the Magic will owe $67.57 million to their players. That figure is below the estimated luxury-tax threshold ($71 million).

We expect their first priority will be re-signing Keyon Dooling, who earned $3.5 million last season and will likely seek a raise based on his strong play, as he became the Magic's top reserve with his defensive and shot-creating skills. Maurice Evans and Carlos Arroyo might return, but Evans will look to triple his salary (he earned $1.5 million last season) and Arroyo would have to accept a heavy paycut ($4.0 million last season). We don't expect either of them to return, nor do we expect the team to offer contracts to little-used power forwards James Augustine or Pat Garrity. As such, we've left them out of the table below.

Yes, the Magic have plenty of choices to make this offseason, but none of them as significant (or as franchise-defining) as the ones they made last summer, namely signing Rashard Lewis and extending Dwight Howard's contract. However, these smaller transactions may turn out to be more significant, as the team appears to be only a player or two away from seriously contending for the NBA title.

NOTES:

• ¹: As of July 1, 2008
• ²: 2008/09 season
• ³: Estimated

Some playoff-centric stories for today...

• Brian Schmitz writes that tonight's Game Five between the Magic and the Raptors is Orlando's biggest in the Dwight Howard era:

  All season the mantra for the Magic --- heck, all offseason, since they were swept by the Pistons --- has been this:

  Win a series for the first time in 12 years, and it has been a great season. Everything after that is gravy.

  But lose, yikes, and 52-30 has all but been a waste of time. A good run spoiled.

  [....]

  The Howard Era Magic have taken step No. 1: Winning a playoff game.

  They have taken step No. 2: Winning a road playoff game.

  Now this is step No. 3: Closing out a series.

• Stan Van Gundy, who I imagine will receive some third-place Coach of the Year votes, used Pat Garrity extensively in practice yesterday, even though he's not likely to play in this series. Garrity, as the longest-tenured Magic player, participated in practice and spoke to his teammates about what it's like to lose a 3-1 lead in a playoff series.
• Meanwhile, David Whitley worries that Orlando residents will blame the Orlando Sentinel for jinxing the Magic if they lose tonight's game, and if they go on to lose the series.

  Regardless, I don't want Sentinel fingerprints near the Magic's windpipe. So we completely endorse the following comments:

  "It's not over yet," Dwight Howard said.

  "We're taking it one game at a time," Jameer Nelson said.

  "I'm looking forward to the second round," Tracy McGrady said.

  Arrrghhh. Please forget that last one.

  I'd say he did a fine job covering the Sentinel's assets on that one. I question the choice of decorating the front page of this morning's Sports section with a toe-tagged version of the Raptors' alternate logo. Yikes.

• Steve Buffery of the Toronto Sun (via TrueHoop) says Raptors coach Sam Mitchell needs to put Jason Kapono in the starting lineup tonight. After all, what does Mitchell have to lose? His job? Here's an interesting statistic from Buffery's article: Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh are essentially canceling each other out in this series. But the Magic's remaining four starters are scoring 16.7 points per game each, compared to 8.7 points per game for the Raptors. And Mitchell won Coach of the Year last year? Uh, okay...

One final, non-playoff link:

• Last week, We Rite Good hosted the final round of 2007/2008's blogger MVP/RoY rankings. They expanded the rankings to include Coach of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year, and Seventh Man of the Year. So, here's Part I and here's Part II.

Maurice Evans shoots against in the Magic's 121-105 win over the Hawks on Tuesday night. Evans scored a career-high 27 points to help the Magic win for their first win it Atlanta in their past six visits.
Photo by Gregory Smith, the Associated Press

From my preview of this game yesterday...

So yes indeed, our guys need to have their focus at the foul-line tonight if they hope to earn their 51st victory of the season. They'll also have to find some way to stop Joe Johnson, whose scoring output has increased (24, 27, 34) in each game against the Magic. Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans have their work cut out for them.

So, how'd that work out? We shot 72% from the foul line and held Joe Johnson to 10 points, only 2 in the second half. Maurice Evans nearly tripled Johnson's output, with a career-high 27 points, and 15 in the third quarter alone, helping the Magic turn a four-point halftime deficit into a 9-point advantage after three periods. Kudos also to Jameer Nelson, who scored 7 of his 14 points in the period.

We needed Evans' hot shooting tonight. Dwight Howard couldn't get anything going offensively, and didn't seem too engaged in the action. He finished with 13 rebounds, but easily could have snagged 3 more had he not simply given up on them. He also seemed frustrated that the Hawks were allowed to hack him with impunity. That's fine, though. The officials let him get away with some, uh, extracurricular contact also.

It really is hard to complain about this win. The Hawks used a 14-1 run at the start of the second quarter to take control of the game, and at halftime it looked as though we were headed toward our 31st loss of the season. Fortunately, our starters were motivated in the third quarter, asserted themselves, and retook the lead. As a result, Stan Van Gundy was able to empty the bench in the fourth quarter: J.J. Redick scored 11 points on 6 shots and Keyon Dooling dished 7 assists in the period, finishing with 9 on the game. The only non-rotation player not to see action in the fourth was James Augustine, who didn't make the most of his four first-half minutes. Pat Garrity got the call instead.

Be sure to check out Brian Schmitz's recap at the Orlando Sentinel, which sheds some light on the Magic's free-agent preferences this summer. You might be surprised by what team president Bob Vander Weide thinks about Jameer Nelson.

So the Magic won and managed to rest their starters. SUCCESS. Let's see if they can do the same in the season finale against Washington this evening.

Quick notes on this stiflingly humid Friday.:

• Monday,  a panel of FanHouse writers named Hedo Turkoglu the NBA's Most Improved Player. Now, Ball Don't Lie has a poll which lets its readers decide who should win. Hedo leads the field by a wide margin, with 44% of the vote. Andrew Bynum, who would probably be the front-runner if he hadn't busted his knee, holds second place in the poll with 25%. Anyway, uh, vote Hedo!
• The Blowtorch looks at the Magic's weakest link: their back-up big men:

  Here is a list of bench players 6'9" and over that have played in games for the Magic this year:

  Brian Cook
  

  Pat Garrity
  
  Adonal Foyle
  
  James Augustine
  
  Marcin Gortat
  
  Bo Outlaw

  I'm serious. Bo Outlaw played in a real NBA game for a real NBA team this season. I don't think he's actually on the roster right now, but that's ridiculous.

• Speaking of backups, the Orlando Sentinel confirms that Brian Cook will probably miss at least the first round of the playoffs due to his broken hand.
• Dwight Howard and Chris Paul share the spotlight in this split-screen NBA Playoffs commercial. For the love of Seikaly, please let the Hornets and the Magic play each other in the Finals sometime soon. (Thanks, HP).
• Last week, SLAM gave a sneak peek of the cover to its latest issue, which features Dwight Howard. It's on sale now, and the magazine's website has a behind-the-scenes look at how the photographers made Dwight fly. And if you need any more incentive to get this issue (cop this ish? I have no idea), it also profiles D-League star Rod Benson. BOOM THO.

	vs.
49-29		19-59
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Randy Foye
Maurice Evans	SG	Marko Jaric
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Kirk Snyder
Rashard Lewis	PF	Ryan Gomes
Dwight Howard	C	Al Jefferson
Season series:
6 Nov 2007: Magic 111, Timberwolves 103

We should have no trouble with Minnesota at all. The Timberwolves are a decent rebounding team (12th in offensive rebound rate, 15th in defensive rebound rate), but don't do anything else well. They have Al Jefferson, who'd be an All-Star if he played for a team anywhere close to .500. He's one of only four players in the league this year averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds; Dwight Howard, Antawn Jamison, and Carlos Boozer are the others.

Jefferson is a poor defender, though. In an improbable victory over the Suns earlier this year, Jefferson scored 39 points, but allowed Amare Stoudemire to score 33.... on 14-of-16 from the field. Dwight Howard will destroy Jefferson tonight, provided that his teammates do a good enough job of getting him the ball.

They also have free-agent-to-be Ryan Gomes, who can play either forward position and is a solid "glue guy," the kind of role-player I'd like to see us sign this summer. But he told Hoopsworld he wants to stay in Minnesota. What a shame.

I get a feeling like we'll get to see plenty of J.J. Redick, Carlos Arroyo, Pat Garrity, and James Augustine tonight. It's our last game against a Western team, so if there's ever a time to rest the starters, it's tonight.

Go Magic. Get that 50th win, and we can all celebrate with free Dunkin' Donuts Saturday morning.