• Erick Blasco of Bleacher Report lists the league's 30 best centers. Our very own Dwight Howard ranks second, behind Yao Ming, in large part due to his lack of offensive moves. Blasco also calls Howard out for poor court awareness on defense. (Hat tip: Canis Hoopus)
• As you might imagine, Dwight's proud to be an Olympic gold medalist. John Denton has the details. (Hat tip: SLAM)
• The Magic are proud of him, too. Check out the splash page of their website.
• The Magic's drafting of Fran Vazquez in with the 11th pick in the 2004 Draft may go down as one of Otis Smith's greatest blunders. Not only did he select a player who has yet to join the team, and who probably won't until next summer at the earliest, he passed on several good-to-great players in the process. As we know, Danny Granger is one such player. Tom Ziller explains what makes him a rising star, and why he's due for a breakout season, in his NBA Top 50 series at FanHouse. For what it's worth, Granger's 44th.
• The Oklahoma City NBA franchise, long-rumored to be named the Thunder, will officially announce its name and colors at a news conference next week. The Magic had a role in the confirmation, as The Lost Ogle found a goof on the team's website whichlisted their December 5th game as "vs. Thunder." Oops. (Hat tip: TrueHoop)
• SLC Dunk user "clarkpojo" believes the Magic would be wise to ship J.J. Redick and Brian Cook to Oklahoma City for Chris Wilcox. I like the idea, at least from our perspective. It clears out the logjam at the two-guard and strengthens the power position at the same time. If only the Thunder had a decent, affordable young point guard to add to the deal...

The Spurs re-signed Kurt Thomas, the forward/center whom the Magic coveted at the deadline. Meanwhile, a day after acquiring combo guard Keyon Dooling from Orlando, the Nets sent backup point guard (and object of Magic fans' affection) Marcus Williams to the Warriors for a future first-round pick.

Oh, and the Magic's chances of re-signing Carlos Arroyo -- already a long shot -- took a big hit when he tore a leg muscle during an Olympic qualifying tournament.

But Javaris Crittenton, long connected to the Magic in trade rumors, is still in play. The Grizzlies' young combo guard is likely the odd-man-out in Memphis, which wants to focus on developing O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, and Kyle Lowry. I think Crittenton would be a home-run acquisition for Otis Smith and the Magic. For one thing, he's tall (6'05"). For another, his presence would make both J.J. Redick and Keith Bogans more expendable than they already are... assuming they weren't the guys dealt for Crittenton in the first place. Finally, it would mean fewer minutes for Anthony Johnson, the Magic's 34-year-old current backup, whose talent level befits that of a third-stringer.

Could Mikki Moore be an option? The Kings spent their full mid-level on the veteran power forward last summer, but might look to unload him to free-up playing time for youngsters Spencer Hawes, Shelden Williams, and Jason Thompson. Kings fan pookeyguru, whom you may know from his participation in the Sactown Royalty community, would swap Moore for Redick and Brian Cook.

I still support the idea of swapping Redick and Cook for Jeff Foster, but I doubt the Pacers would part with him now that they've dealt Jermaine O'Neal to Toronto for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and riff-raff.

Maybe we overestimate the Magic's need for another player at the power positions. After all, Tony Battie will make his return this season, and figures to steal some minutes from Adonal Foyle (at center) and Rashard Lewis/Cook (at power forward). And Marcin Gortat, who played in more post-season games than regular-season ones, showed promise. But you'll forgive me for feeling nervous about a big-man rotation that includes Lewis, Battie, Gortat, Foyle, and James Augustine.

What's the Magic's biggest area of need? Whom should they target to fill that need?

The Orlando Magic reached an agreement to sign free-agent guard Anthony Johnson, who played for them during the 1999/2000 season, as seen above.

File photo by Don Frazier, the Associated Press

The Orlando Magic signed veteran point guard Anthony Johnson to a two-year deal. Denton and Schmitz have the scoop. Schmitz also says that the team expects backup center Adonal Foyle to return, although he will probably not sign for another month. The 2008/09 roster is indeed taking shape, and there could be another deal in the works, as the Magic are still trying to acquire point guard Javaris Crittenton from the Memphis Grizzlies.

Only that last bit of news excites me. Johnson will turn 34 before the season starts and is, at best, a third-string point guard on a contending team. The Magic need to find a younger, taller option to lead the second unit. And as much as we all admire Foyle's hustle and character, he's too much of an offensive liability to effectively back-up Dwight Howard.

Based on today's news, I expect next season's depth chart to resemble the following (inactive players in italics):

The roster is loaded with bigs, so I expect the team to jettison at least one of them (Cook?) before the season starts. So far, this roster isn't a huge improvement over last year's, which won 52 games and a division title, so maybe we shouldn't complain.

Maybe.

Brian Schmitz says the Orlando Magic have offered Keyon Dooling a two-year deal worth a total of $3.8 million, hoping it will be enough to retain the team's best defender. Unfortunately for us, Dooling would be wise to decline that deal because it fails to offer the long-term financial security that he desires and deserves.

I don't know whether to applaud Otis Smith for at least making an offer to Dooling or to criticize him for making such a low offer. It's the latest in a series of moves that Dooling could perceive as snubs. First, the Magic offered their back-up point guard job to Chris Duhon, regarded by most fans and media experts as inferior to Dooling. Then, when Duhon signed with the Knick, the Magic turned their attention to Golden State swingman Mickael Pietrus, whom they eventually signed. In so doing, they lost the cap space they could have used to make Dooling a competitive offer.

Bottom line: we'd love to see Keyon back, especially in light of Jameer Nelson's injury history, which Schmitz mentions in the article. But $3.8 million won't get it done. Once Dooling formally declines that offer, the Magic will probably extend it to Anthony Johnson, Jason Williams, or another such bargain-basement point guard in this barren free-agent market. If those options don't sound good to them, they could always try to swing a trade, using out-of-favor J.J. Redick as bait; Schmitz mentions Keith Bogans and Brian Cook are on the block as well.

n8c21 with the assist.

Mickael "Air France" Pietrus, seen here taking flight over Kyle Korver, has agreed to terms with the Orlando Magic on a multi-year deal.

File photo by George Widman, the Associated Press

Earlier today, I discussed with another blogger how the Magic's inactivity this summer made me nervous. The moves some of the teams behind them have made -- the Wizards' re-signing their two big-name free agents, the Heat's adding the draft's most talented player, the Raptors' acquiring a dominant low-post defender, to name a few -- coupled with the Magic's not making a peep in free agency just made me... uneasy. I didn't like that we were just sitting back, watching other teams make moves to get better.

The Magic got proactive today by agreeing to sign swingman Mickael Pietrus, which is curious, because he doesn't address either of the Magic's biggest needs: depth at point guard and at the power positions. He lacks the ballhandling and decision-making skills to play point-forward, and although Pietrus, 6'07", played power forward in Don Nelson's nutty, anything-goes offense in Golden State, can't play that spot in Orlando, not with Brian Cook (6'09"), Rashard Lewis, and James Augustine (both 6'10") in front of him.

But, despite not addressing Needs 1 and 1-A, Pietrus makes sense for the Magic. He's an upgrade over their incumbent starter, Keith Bogans, and he should make an immediate impact. The signing also means J.J. Redick is likely on his way out. Already the Magic's best trade asset, he now projects to sit at the back end of Orlando's still sub-par backcourt rotation. He, combined with a future draft pick or two, should net the Magic a solid player at either point guard or power forward. The Magic will look to bolster Whichever position the nigh-inevitable Redick trade doesn't address through free agency with the low-level exception. Of course, they wouldn't have to trade Redick if they drafted a power forward in the first place...

A final note about Pietrus: he's coming off a season in which he regressed. His per-36-minute scoring decreased (14.9-12.9), as did his effective field goal percentage (56.7-52.5). Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I believe Pietrus' problem was focus-related. Getting away from Nelson, with whom he had a sour relationship, might do wonders for his confidence and performance.

You may remember this post from May, in which I tried to navigate the NBA's salary cap to see what the Magic could do this summer in free agency. Now that we're closer to the beginning of the free-agent signing period (Wednesday, July 9th), I thought I'd take another look at it. I've presented my findings in a Q-and-A format. For this post, I consulted Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap F.A.Q., Storyteller's Contracts, ESPN's 2008 NBA Free Agent list, and the Orlando Magic's official roster page. We hope you find this guide helpful.

Question: How many players do the Magic have under contract next season, and what are they owed?

Answer: Currently, the Magic have 11 players under contract, owed a total of $60,553,339 next season. While the league has yet to release its official salary-cap data, we can say with absolute certainty that the Magic are over the salary cap. Here's how everything breaks down by player...

Note: for this table, "Age" refers to a player's age as of October 31st, 2008, when we expect the NBA season to begin.

... and by position...

Make the jump to read the rest of the Q-and-A.

Continue reading this post »

The draft is nearly upon us. I have some draft links for you, but first, I'd like to post this link to a 12-day-old (oops!) Florida Today article updating Magic fans as to the team's plans to unveil a new uniform and a new logo next season. We knew about the uniforms changing, but the logo? Crap. I love the current logo... and the current uniforms, for that matter. But sod what I think. Here are my favorite bits from the John Denton-penned report:

We're not ready to say it's absolutely 100 percent yet, but it looks like it's going to happen for next season," Magic Chief Operating Officer Alex Martins said. "Everything is on track as of right now."

The Magic are revealing little about the new look of the uniforms or the team's primary logo, but Martins did hint that the team could reach back to a blast from the past for the new-look uniforms.

[....]

Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson said during the season that he would like to see Orlando return to the pinstriped uniforms that they wore from 1989 through 1997. Fellow Magic captain Dwight Howard said he was in favor of a black jersey because of the menacing look it might provide.

Considering how much clout Dwight Howard has with this organization, and considering the fact that the Magic's hideous draft cap this year is black, I'd say it's a strong possibility that next year's away uniforms will be black. If they remain blue, the soonest we could see the Magic back in black (sorry, couldn't help myself) would be the 2010/2011 season, as NBA teams must wait two years after introducing a new uniform design before debuting an alternate uniform in that design.

And now, your regularly scheduled bulleted list:

• Jonathan Givony thinks it's essentially a given that the Orlando Magic will select Western Kentucky two-guard Courtney Lee. Why?:

  Speaking of Courtney Lee, basically every team representative we've spoken with has him going 22nd in their personal mock draft, heading to Orlando.

  Lee, an efficient shooter, tops my draft board for Orlando as well.

• ESPN's John Hollinger, though, doesn't think Lee will turn into such a great pro, rating him a "fringe second-rounder" in an Insider report yesterday. Hollinger used regression analysis to predict a player's third-year PER, and found Lee's to be 11.17. Sounds bad, but he notes the following:

  The interesting part for wings is that players rated between 11 and 12.5 have been much more successful than those at other positions -- 15 of the 38 such players in the past six drafts eventually cracked a pro rotation, and a couple (Kevin Martin and Mo Williams) became really good.

  I have a headache.

• Chad Ford's latest mock draft at ESPN has the Magic passing on Lee to instead select Florida forward/center Marreese Speights. Lots of draft sites have updated lately. Check out 3QC's Magic Mock Draft Watch to see, in a convenient at-a-glance format, which player the best NBA sites have the Magic selecting.
• Paul Forrester of Sports Illustrated takes an in-depth look at each NBA team's key free agents and offseason needs heading into Thursday's draft and July's free-agency period. An excerpt:

  Outlook: Last year's spending spree on Rashard Lewis was the easy part. Now GM Otis Smith has to round out his club with the mid-level exception and sweetheart veteran deals. The No. 22 pick also could offer some help, but maybe not yield the every-game point guard this club needs to truly take off.

  I agree with most everything Forrester wrote, except the team's need for an every-game point guard. I believe that the Magic have, in Jameer Nelson, a guy who can produce 13 points and 6 assists every game. But, judging by how many 3QC readers gave Jameer an "F" for his performance last season in a recent poll, I might be in the minority in trusting him.
• I (obviously) have no league sources, but Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News does, and they tell him the Magic scouted Rider forward Jason Thompson "very heavily." Interestingly, Kawakami has learned that Thompson "is a terrific guy" and a "good team player." Given the Magic's preference for acquiring squeaky-clean players -- or, perhaps more accurately, their preference for avoiding dirty ones -- that bit of information leads me to speculate the Magic won't let Thompson, whom DraftExpress likens to Brian Cook, slip past them at 22.
• Believing in Magic has a shortlist of players it thinks the Magic will consider.

This summer, 3QC will take a look back on each Magic player's 2007-2008 season. The first nine posts will evaluate, on an individual basis and in alphabetical order, the players who played in at least 20% of the team's total minutes; the final post will briefly evaluate the five players who appeared in less than 20% of the team's minutes.

Today, our focus is Maurice Evans.

When Maurice Evans joined the Magic in November, his teammates nicknamed him "Mogans" for his resemblance to Keith Bogans, his new teammate. It's true that the players are alike physically, but their games are similar as well. They're both two-guards who are known for their defense and who prefer to shoot three-pointers from the corners.

Where Evans differs most from Bogans is his aggressiveness. He moves well without the ball, but not in the traditional way. When we apply that phrase to shooting guards, we typically think of players like Reggie Miller and Richard Hamilton who cut around screens to elude defenders and to get open for jumpers. In contrast, Evans finds ways to get free directly under the basket for dunks and layups. It also helps him rack-up offensive rebounds at an impressive rate for a player his size.

But that aggressiveness is not without its drawbacks. Unless he has a wide-open -- and I really mean wide-open -- look under the basket, he's liable to get his shot blocked. Opponents swatted a staggering 25% of Evans' "close" shot attempts this season, according to 82games. At 6'5", he shouldn't have that much trouble finishing at the basket. Additionally, Evans tends to overestimate his own ballhandling skills, pushing the ball upcourt when he should instead wait for the offense to set up. And although I don't have statistical evidence to back this claim up, I suspect he lead the team in "turnovers caused by stepping on the sideline with the ball." But he turned the ball over less that one time a game, so I suppose we can forgive him for that.

Defensively, Evans is like Bogans in that he simply has a knack for staying with his man. But Evans tends to "gamble" for steals more than Bogans does, which makes him a liability at times. He's also less physical.

Overall, his efficiency makes Evans the sort of backup two-guard the Magic need. He's deadly from three-point range and hardly makes mistakes. Two major factors hurt the team's chances of re-signing him, though: first, Bogans has a player option for next season, and Magic GM Otis Smith has said he'd "be shocked" if he didn't use it. Although Evans is the better player, the Magic only have 15 roster spots, and can't devote two of them to like-skilled, backup-quality shooting guards. Second, Evans will want a raise from the $1.5 million he earned last year. The Magic figure to make re-signing Keyon Dooling their top priority, and they might not have enough money leftover to keep Evans. It's too bad. The second-best trade Smith ever made -- getting Evans and Brian Cook from the Lakers for Trevor Ariza -- may soon go for naught.

... did it actually happen?

• The Magic held private workouts with at least three players today, all of them power forwards: Joey Dorsey from Memphis; Marreese Speights from Florida; and D.J. White from Indiana. No word from any of the usual suspects as to how the workouts went, so, uh, that's all I've got. If you're really curious, DraftExpress has the measurements of almost every player in this year's draft class. Dorsey is the only one of the guys the Magic worked out today to appear on that list, though. He's 6'7.25" with shoes.

• Interesting reaction to Otis Smith's contract extension from Matt Watson:

  The Magic improved by 12 games this year to finish with 52 wins, their most since 1996 when Shaquille O'Neal and Penny Hardaway carried the team all the way to the NBA Finals. GM Otis Smith deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround, first for bidding against himself to sign Rashard Lewis and then having the foresight of knowing Tony Battie would get suffer a season-ending injury to open up playing time for the soon-to-be Most Improved Player Hedo Turkoglu. For that, he was rewarded with a three-year extension.

  [....]

  Smith is hardly the worst GM in the league, but I'm convinced the Magic are where they are despite his efforts, not because of it.

• By the way, the schedule for 3QC's Orlando Magic player evaluations is as follows:
  • Monday, June 2nd: Carlos Arroyo
  • Tuesday, June 3rd: Keith Bogans
  • Wednesday, June 4th: Keyon Dooling
  • Thursday, June 5th: Maurice Evans
  • Friday, June 6th: Adonal Foyle
  • Monday, June 9th: Dwight Howard
  • Tuesday, June 10th: Rashard Lewis
  • Wednesday, June 11th: Jameer Nelson
  • Thursday, June 12th: Hedo Turkoglu
  • Friday, June 13th: James Augustine, Brian Cook, Pat Garrity, Marcin Gortat, and J.J. Redick.

We now return to your regularly scheduled early-summer doldrums, already in progress.

Brent Beck, a die-hard Pacers fan, really wants Indiana to make a move for J.J. Redick, as he explains in a guest post at Indy Cornrows. Considering the Pacers a) are one of my favorite teams, b) Redick is one of my favorite players, and c) the Magic have no use for him, I heartily endorse the idea of sending Redick to Indy. But, as in any trade proposal, one must consider what the Pacers have to offer the Magic. And there's an obvious answer:

Jeff Foster.

File photo by Tim Strattman, the Associated Press

The Magic need help at power forward and center. Foster, a nine-year veteran with a career PER of 14.4, plays both positions. And unlike Brian Cook, the Magic's presumed backup four next season, Foster bangs around the boards with the best of them. And I really mean "the best": he lead the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player snags while on the floor) in each of the last two seasons. His career ORR, 15.31, is fifth-best in the history of the league and tops among active players, even more highly paid ones like Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Ben Wallace. And, wouldn't you know it, the Magic's biggest weakness in their first season under Stan Van Gundy was their inability to clean up their own misses: although they were nigh-elite on the defensive boards, they were horrendous on the offensive ones, finishing 27th in the league in Offensive Rebounding Rate.

Foster's presence has a tremendous impact on the Pacers' rebounding abilities as a team. Data from 82games.com show that when he's on the floor, they grab 50.9% of available rebounds, a 4.7% improvement from their average when he's off the floor. Don't let the advertising quacks fool you. "Foster" is not "Australian for 'beer,'" but rather "San Antonian for 'Rebound.'"

As always, we must consider finances when discussing potential trades. Foster's $5.70 million salary next season more than double's Redick's ($2.14 million), but the Magic can throw in a player to make the trade work. Whom might they package? Look no further than Brian Cook. At 27, he's nearly four full years younger than Foster, and while he's certainly hit his ceiling, he fits in with Indiana's younger players (average age: 26.7) better than Foster did. Additionally, Cook's specialty, three-point shooting, will come in handy in Indiana. Only the Warriors and the Magic attempted more triples last season than the Pacers did, yet they finished eighth in three-point percentage. As a bonus for Indiana, his style contrasts nicely with Ike Diogu, the so-called "steal" in the trade that sent Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington to the Warriors, who plays more of a low-post game.

And if all those reasons didn't do it for you, maybe this one will. Foster's contract expires at the end of next season, giving the Magic cap room to re-sgn Hedo Turkoglu, who will almost certainly use his opt-out clause to negotiate a contract which would reward him for his exemplary play of late. Or, if Turk decides he would rather not stay with the Magic, or if the Magic decide Turk's asking price is too high, they can try to re-sign Foster.

To me, this trade is a low-risk, high-reward proposition for the Magic. They exchange one young player who doesn't play and a veteran who doesn't fit their needs for a veteran who does fit their needs. Heck, I wouldn't mind throwing a future first-round pick into the deal if it would appease the Pacers.

When the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Cook, ESPN's John Hollinger liked the deal because it was the sort of minor move that above-average teams make to take themselves to the next level. Obtaining Foster would be a similar, seemingly minor move for the Magic, but one that would pay even greater dividends. Every serious contender in the NBA gets contributions from role-players: Detroit has Antonio McDyess; San Antonio has Kurt Thomas; Boston has... well, it has three future Hall-of-Famers, so it doesn't count; and the Lakers have Derek Fisher. If the Magic want to make the most of the primes of their stars, they'd do well to acquire Foster (or another similar role-player) who may be slightly past his.